Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

A buy-side analyst with over 18 years of experience investing in Asian markets and specializing in the mid-small cap space, emphasizing value investing in companies with good free cash flows/dividends and long-term holding horizons. 
Exempt Financial Adviser (EFA) under CrossASEAN Research Pte Ltd. It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Iron Ore Sentiment Stays Fragile but a Key Technical Support Is Cushioning the Pullback

Iron Ore: Too Much Volatility On The Cost Drivers

Iron Ore Fortnightly: Is the Recovery Running Ahead of the Fundamentals?

Iron Ore: Simandou Supply Disappoints/ What's Happening To The Cost Curve/ Chinese Mills Profitable?

Iron Ore: Stockpiling In Chinese Ports Continues, Over 45 Days Of Inventory Just At The Ports

Iron Ore Q3FY26 Operational Reports: Are The Miners Going To Find Diesel Supply/Price Challenging?

Fortescue Metals (FMG AU): Strong H1, Pre-2030 Earnings Bump From Decarbonization + Iron Bridge

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Chinese steel production was -2.8% YoY, significantly better than the -10.3% YoY in December. The replacement of Iranian steel exports and, to a larger extent, better demand have catalyzed this. </li>
<li>The 65-62 spread widened to 20 USD/ton, above the normalized average, as China's demand for high-grade ore improved and mills showed higher profitability.  </li>
<li>With a 5-10 USD/ton in the cost curve and disappointing shipments from Simandou, we see iron ore remain rangebound between 95-110 USD/ton.</li>
</ul>


Chinese steel production was -2.8% YoY, significantly better than the -10.3% YoY in December. The replacement of Iranian steel exports and, to a larger extent, better demand have catalyzed this. 
The 65-62 spread widened to 20 USD/ton, above the normalized average, as China's demand for high-grade ore improved and mills showed higher profitability.  
With a 5-10 USD/ton in the cost curve and disappointing shipments from Simandou, we see iron ore remain rangebound between 95-110 USD/ton.


Cost Push, Higher Chinese Utilizations Support Iron Ore At > USD 100/Ton

Fenix Resources

Cost Push, Higher Chinese Utilizations Support Iron Ore At > USD 100/Ton