European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Couche-Tard's PLN32.00 cash offer values Żabka at approximately 10x NTM EBITDA, reflecting full standalone value rather than a discounted acquisition.</li>
<li>Consensus forecasts show ROCE exceeding 23% and ROIC 18% by FY28, supporting premium valuation multiples and Couche-Tard's willingness to pay full value.</li>
<li>Irrevocable undertakings covering 57% of the share capital, manageable regulatory approvals and an implied market completion probability of 92.7% suggest the remaining spread modestly overstates execution risk.</li>
</ul>


Couche-Tard's PLN32.00 cash offer values Żabka at approximately 10x NTM EBITDA, reflecting full standalone value rather than a discounted acquisition.
Consensus forecasts show ROCE exceeding 23% and ROIC 18% by FY28, supporting premium valuation multiples and Couche-Tard's willingness to pay full value.
Irrevocable undertakings covering 57% of the share capital, manageable regulatory approvals and an implied market completion probability of 92.7% suggest the remaining spread modestly overstates execution risk.


Couche-Tard/Żabka: Full Value, Limited Premium

Zabka Group

Couche-Tard/Żabka: Full Value, Limited Premium