Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

I investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Coupang: Early Lockup Releases & Local Regulatory Risks

Triggering Point & Timing for Shorting Coupang

CPNG: 1Q21 - Revenues Soar, Losses Deepen

Coupang: Will It Eventually Spin-Off Its Logistics Business Just Like JD.com/JD Logistics?

Coupang IPO: Significantly Overvalued As a LT Investment & Too Risky To Bet On The Short Term Upside

Coupang IPO and Softbank Group - A Vision Fund Jewel Emerges but It Is Pricey

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

Equity Capital Markets

<p>Coupang's IPO pricing is scheduled for March 10.</p><p>March 11 is a likely IPO day.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
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<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" style="width: 723.636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"IPO overview"}'><div><div>IPO overview</div></div></td></tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 329.091px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Proposed Symbol"}'>Proposed Symbol</td>
<td style="text-align: left; width: 373.636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"CPNG"}' data-sheets-hyperlink="https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/cpng"><p>CPNG</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 329.091px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Exchange"}'>Exchange</td>
<td style="text-align: left; width: 373.636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"NYSE"}'>NYSE</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 329.091px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Share Price"}'>Share Price</td>
<td style="text-align: left; width: 373.636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"$27.00-30.00"}'><div><div>$27.00-30.00</div></div></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 329.091px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Shares Offered"}'>Shares Offered</td>
<td style="text-align: left; width: 373.636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":120000000}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}'>120,000,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 329.091px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Offer amount"}'>Offer amount</td>
<td style="text-align: left; width: 373.636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"$3,600,000,000"}'><div><div>$3,600,000,000</div></div></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 329.091px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Shareholder Shares Offered"}'>Shareholder Shares Offered</td>
<td style="text-align: left; width: 373.636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":20000000}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}'>20,000,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 329.091px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Shares Outstanding"}'>Shares Outstanding</td>
<td style="text-align: left; width: 373.636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1531911152}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}'>1,531,911,152</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" style="width: 723.636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: NYSE"}'>Source: NYSE</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><hr><p><strong>The biggest concern in the pricing would <em>still</em> be a high level of A/Ps and inventories.</strong></p><p>Coupang achieved nearly 100% yearly growth in sales last year.</p><p>But what Coupang really wants investors to see is a dramatic turnaround in operating cash flow. Since its foundation, it had never reported plus in this area until last year.</p><p>Finally, a $301.6B positive number got in.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
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<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"(US$B)"}'>(US$B)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2019}'>2019</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2020}'>2020</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"YoY"}'>YoY</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Sales"}'>Sales</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":6273.26}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.0"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-5]">6,273.3</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":11967.34}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.0"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-5]">11,967.3</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.9076747974737217}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-1]-R[0]C[-2])/R[0]C[-2]">90.77%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Operating cash flow"}'><strong>Operating cash flow</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-311.84}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.0"]'><strong>-311.8</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":301.55}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.0"]'><strong>301.6</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]'>-</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="4" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: SEC &amp; Coupang"}'>Source: SEC &amp; Coupang</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>Given the extraordinary situation (pandemic), doubling sales would be easily understandable.</p><p>Then, profitability improvement?</p><p>Is it really true that Coupang's volume-driven strategy has reached a level to enjoy a consistent stream of positive cash flow?</p>

Coupang's IPO pricing is scheduled for March 10.March 11 is a likely IPO day.





IPO overview

Proposed Symbol
CPNG


Exchange
NYSE


Share Price
$27.00-30.00


Shares Offered
120,000,000


Offer amount
$3,600,000,000


Shareholder Shares Offered
20,000,000


Shares Outstanding
1,531,911,152

Source: NYSE

The biggest concern in the pricing would still be a high level of A/Ps and inventories.Coupang achieved nearly 100% yearly growth in sales last year.But what Coupang really wants investors to see is a dramatic turnaround in operating cash flow. Since its foundation, it had never reported plus in this area until last year.Finally, a $301.6B positive number got in.








(US$B)
2019
2020
YoY


Sales
6,273.3
11,967.3
90.77%


Operating cash flow
-311.8
301.6
-

Source: SEC &amp; Coupang

Given the extraordinary situation (pandemic), doubling sales would be easily understandable.Then, profitability improvement?Is it really true that Coupang's volume-driven strategy has reached a level to enjoy a consistent stream of positive cash flow?

Coupang

Coupang IPO: A/P & Inventories Issue