Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Victor Galliano is an experienced equity banks analyst, having covered Latin America banks and non-bank financials for over 12 years, as well as more recently covering the Italian banks. He has worked in sell side equity research for 30 years in a career spanning Barclays, HSBC, BBVA LatInvest, Barings and NatWest.
Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.
The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Financials & FinTech research

Credicorp (BAP US): Prospects Hinge on the Composition of the Castillo Administration

Brazil Bank Sector Trends to May in Ten Charts

LatAm Financials Review: Focus on the Value Opportunities

GEM Bank Credit Quality and Value Screens; the 4Q20 Story so Far

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li><a target="_blank">The presidential election in Peru, a very tight race between far-left teacher Pedro Castillo and tarnished career politician Keiko Fujimori, will be held on 6<sup>th</sup> June</a></li>
<li>The contest is considered too close to call by pollsters, and although Castillo appears to have a slim lead over Fujimori, this lead has narrowed recently to well within the margin of error</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credicorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25963:1" rel="noopener">Credicorp Ltd (BAP US)</a>  is a weathervane of the small Peruvian equity market, and, in view of the election uncertainty, its share price volatility has increased over the last few months; in addition, this uncertainty has fuelled short interest in Credicorp</li>
<li>It is clear that the election outcome, from a market perspective, will be a binary one, with further downside risk in the event of a Castillo victory and a relief rally should more market-friendly Fujimori win</li>
<li>Despite Credicorp’s share rebound of 20% off its recent lows, <strong>we see Credicorp as a buy for the brave</strong> – especially in view of Castillo’s lead narrowing – and, in the event of a Fujimori win, there is the added potential of investors scrambling to cover short positions in Peruvian assets, including Credicorp</li>
<li>Risks to our positive view on Credicorp include a Castillo victory and his implementation of draconian left-wing policies that hurt growth prospects, and result in higher system NPLs and higher costs through wage increases</li>
</ul>


The presidential election in Peru, a very tight race between far-left teacher Pedro Castillo and tarnished career politician Keiko Fujimori, will be held on 6th June
The contest is considered too close to call by pollsters, and although Castillo appears to have a slim lead over Fujimori, this lead has narrowed recently to well within the margin of error

Credicorp Ltd (BAP US)  is a weathervane of the small Peruvian equity market, and, in view of the election uncertainty, its share price volatility has increased over the last few months; in addition, this uncertainty has fuelled short interest in Credicorp
It is clear that the election outcome, from a market perspective, will be a binary one, with further downside risk in the event of a Castillo victory and a relief rally should more market-friendly Fujimori win
Despite Credicorp’s share rebound of 20% off its recent lows, we see Credicorp as a buy for the brave – especially in view of Castillo’s lead narrowing – and, in the event of a Fujimori win, there is the added potential of investors scrambling to cover short positions in Peruvian assets, including Credicorp
Risks to our positive view on Credicorp include a Castillo victory and his implementation of draconian left-wing policies that hurt growth prospects, and result in higher system NPLs and higher costs through wage increases


Credicorp (BAP US); Hanging on a Binary Election Outcome