Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads is an independent credit research service specializing in Emerging Markets, primarily focusing on Latin American issuers.

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

CSN 2Q26: Better Operations, Credit Still Execution-Driven

CSN: S&P Downgrade Reinforces Execution Risk, Thesis Persists

CSN 4Q25: Structural Risks and Execution Remain Central

CSN Launches Divestment Plan to Reduce Debt by R$15–18 Billion

EM Spreads

Credit

Companhia Siderurgica Nacional (CSNA3 BR)

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<li>
Key Outcome: CSN’s bridge loan improves near term funding visibility, but the credit remains a show-me deleveraging story tied to asset sales and cash conversion.</li>
<li>
Risk/Volatility: Liquidity quality remains the main caveat, with negative free cash flow, tight parent-level cash, secured debt risk, and refinancing execution still unresolved.</li>
<li>
Valuation Driver: Distressed pricing still compensates investors, but upside depends on visible asset monetization, debt reduction, and stronger recurring cash generation.</li>
</ul>



Key Outcome: CSN’s bridge loan improves near term funding visibility, but the credit remains a show-me deleveraging story tied to asset sales and cash conversion.

Risk/Volatility: Liquidity quality remains the main caveat, with negative free cash flow, tight parent-level cash, secured debt risk, and refinancing execution still unresolved.

Valuation Driver: Distressed pricing still compensates investors, but upside depends on visible asset monetization, debt reduction, and stronger recurring cash generation.


CSN 1Q26: Bridge Loan Supports a Show-Me Credit