Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads is an independent credit research service specializing in Emerging Markets, primarily focusing on Latin American issuers.

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>We maintain Overweight on the 2031s and 2032s for their attractive carry, meaningful spread pickup versus LatAm BB peers, and stronger downside protection at current discounted prices.</li>
<li>We think credit metrics will remain stable, supported by strong liquidity covering maturities through 2027, easier-to-roll bank debt, and expected EBITDA improvement from recovering steel and resilient mining.</li>
<li>We see potential spread compression from recovering steel prices, protectionist measures, asset-sale-driven deleveraging, and solid operating assets, reinforcing the bonds’ attractive relative value at current wide levels.</li>
</ul>


We maintain Overweight on the 2031s and 2032s for their attractive carry, meaningful spread pickup versus LatAm BB peers, and stronger downside protection at current discounted prices.
We think credit metrics will remain stable, supported by strong liquidity covering maturities through 2027, easier-to-roll bank debt, and expected EBITDA improvement from recovering steel and resilient mining.
We see potential spread compression from recovering steel prices, protectionist measures, asset-sale-driven deleveraging, and solid operating assets, reinforcing the bonds’ attractive relative value at current wide levels.


CSN 3Q25: Mining Strength Offsets Steel Weakness

Cia Siderurgica Nacional Sa

CSN 3Q25: Mining Strength Offsets Steel Weakness