HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Osbert Tang is an equity analyst with over 20 years of experience with focuses on China transport, infrastructure, industrials and utilities sectors. He has been based in Shanghai since 2003, accumulated nearly 20 years of on-ground knowledge on the Chinese economy and financial markets, and has a wealth of contacts with China corporates and government entities. 

Osbert has received votes from top-tier institutional investors and has been a highly-ranked transport and infrastructure analyst in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investors and Greenwich surveys. In addition to his extensive experience with international investment banks including RBS, ABN AMRO (both served as Shanghai Chief Representative), Paribas Asia Equity, Maybank Kim Eng and DBS Securities, he has been a senior analyst with Moody’s Investors Service with focus on ratings of China infrastructure and related LGFV issuers. He has also worked in the area of strategic development at Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited. 

Osbert holds a BBA from the Chinese University of Hong Kong, an MBA from the University of Texas at Austin and a MSSc in Applied Psychology from the City University of Hong Kong. He was accredited with the CFA charter in 1997, and is a member of both British Psychological Society and Hong Kong Psychological Society.

Chinese Airlines and Airports: Huge Benefit from Resumption of Cross-Province Group Tourism

Shanghai International Airport (600009 CH): Slight Softening in Momentum in Jun

Chinese Airlines: China Southern's Got the Best Traffic Performance in 1H20

China Intl Travel Service (601888 CH): Excellent Exposure to Hainan Free Trade Port Policies

China Intl Travel Service (601888 CH): Acquisition of 51% Stake in Hainan Duty Free a Value Deal

China Tourism Gp Duty Free (601888 CH): Surge in Hainan Tourists & Duty Free Policy Implementation

Equity Bottom-Up

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)

<p>The average of Rmb64m daily duty free sales in Hainan Island for 1-7 Jul, as released by the China Customs, is 72% higher than the daily sales of the Hainan outlets of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12278:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)</a> (CTGDF) in FY19. In our view, this is a positive reflection of the outlook of the company's duty free business as driven by the favourable duty free policy put into effect on 1 Jul. The increase in the number of categories of high-valued duty free items will also have positive impact to CTGDF's margin going forward.</p><p>Our forecasts suggested that CTGDF's core EPS will reach a CAGR of 26% between FY19 and FY22. We believe that such projections, as based on the 1-7 Jul figures, are likely to be conservative as during such period: 1.) visitors from Beijing are still significantly affected by travel restriction due to the capital's COVID-19 cases; 2.) most schools have not yet started the summer vacation; and 3.) the average spending of ~Rmb10,000 is still far from the new quota of Rmb100,000 annually.</p>

The average of Rmb64m daily duty free sales in Hainan Island for 1-7 Jul, as released by the China Customs, is 72% higher than the daily sales of the Hainan outlets of China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH) (CTGDF) in FY19. In our view, this is a positive reflection of the outlook of the company's duty free business as driven by the favourable duty free policy put into effect on 1 Jul. The increase in the number of categories of high-valued duty free items will also have positive impact to CTGDF's margin going forward.Our forecasts suggested that CTGDF's core EPS will reach a CAGR of 26% between FY19 and FY22. We believe that such projections, as based on the 1-7 Jul figures, are likely to be conservative as during such period: 1.) visitors from Beijing are still significantly affected by travel restriction due to the capital's COVID-19 cases; 2.) most schools have not yet started the summer vacation; and 3.) the average spending of ~Rmb10,000 is still far from the new quota of Rmb100,000 annually.

CTG Duty Free Corp (601888 CH): Encouraging Initial Jul Duty Free Figures from New Hainan Policy