Reserve Bank of India – Wrong Rule At Wrong Time

Reserve Bank Of India – FSR Is Very Unrealistic

DBS Group Holdings – Quickly Losing Credibility

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Unbelievable: DBS Group Holdings (DBS.SP) [DBS] reported 1Q21 results of SGD 2.0 bn, increasing SGD 997 mn (98.5%) on a linked quarter basis. Results were driven primarily by two factors: a) loss provisions declined SGD 567 mn (98.3%) which is bizarre in light of its troubled Indian acquisition, Lakshmi Vilas Bank (LVB), risk is not controlled; and b) fee revenue growth of SGD 604 mn (52.8%) which includes an undisclosed level of non-operating gains;*Watch Your Credit: We struggle continue to believe that DBS’ due diligence had actually caught all of LVB’s risk (see discussion below), and remain unconvinced that the moratorium exits are anything more than additional reliance on government schemes and relief programs. DBS has disclosed absolutely nothing about Shenzhen Rural Commercial Bank’s (SRCB) fundamentals. Net new NPLs continue to increase – up SGD 85 mn or increasing 5.6% on an annualized basis. Reserves should be shored up in the neighborhood of SGD 2.5bn to reflect this risk; and**Deal Distractions Mount:  While SRCB dos not appear to be riddled with problems the way LVB is, no doubt there will be issues to contend with.  DBS apparently isn’t done with its shopping spree, being in the running for parts of Citigroup's (C.US) consumer business in Asia. Frankly, DBS needs to focus on improving its own legacy issues before it starts both taking on those of other financial institutions.

*Unbelievable: DBS Group Holdings (DBS.SP) [DBS] reported 1Q21 results of SGD 2.0 bn, increasing SGD 997 mn (98.5%) on a linked quarter basis. Results were driven primarily by two factors: a) loss provisions declined SGD 567 mn (98.3%) which is bizarre in light of its troubled Indian acquisition, Lakshmi Vilas Bank (LVB), risk is not controlled; and b) fee revenue growth of SGD 604 mn (52.8%) which includes an undisclosed level of non-operating gains;*Watch Your Credit: We struggle continue to believe that DBS’ due diligence had actually caught all of LVB’s risk (see discussion below), and remain unconvinced that the moratorium exits are anything more than additional reliance on government schemes and relief programs. DBS has disclosed absolutely nothing about Shenzhen Rural Commercial Bank’s (SRCB) fundamentals. Net new NPLs continue to increase – up SGD 85 mn or increasing 5.6% on an annualized basis. Reserves should be shored up in the neighborhood of SGD 2.5bn to reflect this risk; and**Deal Distractions Mount:  While SRCB dos not appear to be riddled with problems the way LVB is, no doubt there will be issues to contend with.  DBS apparently isn’t done with its shopping spree, being in the running for parts of Citigroup's (C.US) consumer business in Asia. Frankly, DBS needs to focus on improving its own legacy issues before it starts both taking on those of other financial institutions.

DBS Group Holdings – Not Sure Whether To Laugh Or Cry