External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Vietcap

Vietcap

We specialize in consulting both individual and institutional clients, providing them with effective financial solutions that are tailored to their specific needs.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

Petrovietnam Ca Mau Fertilizer / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li style="text-align: justify;">We raise our 2025F Middle East urea price forecast by 5% to USD395/tonne (+17% YoY) due to higher-than-expected H1 prices of USD402/tonne, driven by (1) tight Iranian/Egyptian/EU supply due to gas shortages and increasing gas prices</li><li style="text-align: justify;">(2) high demand from India, and (3) rising geopolitical tension in the Middle East region.</li><li style="text-align: justify;">We raise our 2026-29F Middle East urea price average forecast by 13% to USD380/tonne (implying a 4% lower figure vs 2025F, but 18% higher than the 2012-21 average), mainly driven by (1) surging EU tax on imported fertilizer from Russia/Belarus (rising from 6.5% to nearly 100% by 2028, effective from July 1, 2025) and (2) rising carbon tax applied on other countries (several fertilizer manufacturers warned of a USD70/tonne tax increase) </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We raise our 2025F Middle East urea price forecast by 5% to USD395/tonne (+17% YoY) due to higher-than-expected H1 prices of USD402/tonne, driven by (1) tight Iranian/Egyptian/EU supply due to gas shortages and increasing gas prices(2) high demand from India, and (3) rising geopolitical tension in the Middle East region.We raise our 2026-29F Middle East urea price average forecast by 13% to USD380/tonne (implying a 4% lower figure vs 2025F, but 18% higher than the 2012-21 average), mainly driven by (1) surging EU tax on imported fertilizer from Russia/Belarus (rising from 6.5% to nearly 100% by 2028, effective from July 1, 2025) and (2) rising carbon tax applied on other countries (several fertilizer manufacturers warned of a USD70/tonne tax increase) Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

DCM [BUY +26.3%] - NPAT Growth on Strong Urea ASP/NPK Volume, Tax Savings