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Dodla Dairy (DODLA) - Multiple Near-Term Triggers Position It for Re-Rating

Founder, CEO, GSBR Research

Garvit Bhandari

Founder, CEO

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Dodla delivered record Q1 FY27 revenue of INR11,979mn (+19% YOY), but EBITDA margin collapsed 278bps to 5.4% as milk procurement costs stayed elevated while realizations lagged</li>
<li>Management reaffirmed a return to its 7-8% EBITDA margin band, with corrections of INR2/litre on milk and INR3-4/litre on VAP already taken from mid-July.</li>
<li>At ~28x trailing earnings against a 5.4% margin quarter, the stock already discounts the recovery.</li>
</ul>


Dodla delivered record Q1 FY27 revenue of INR11,979mn (+19% YOY), but EBITDA margin collapsed 278bps to 5.4% as milk procurement costs stayed elevated while realizations lagged
Management reaffirmed a return to its 7-8% EBITDA margin band, with corrections of INR2/litre on milk and INR3-4/litre on VAP already taken from mid-July.
At ~28x trailing earnings against a 5.4% margin quarter, the stock already discounts the recovery.


Dodla Dairy: Margin Pressure Looks Cyclical, but the Premium Valuation Demands a Swift Recovery