Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

EA: Flash HICP as Flat as a Spring Pancake

EA: Final Feb Inflation Precisely In-Line

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li><em>Jan-21 inflation was confirmed at 0.9% y-o-y in the euro area, with the ex-tobacco index at 0.8%, as expected. Weighting changes caused 44bps of the 118bp EA rise, but the shock washes out in our forecast for the annual rate in Dec-21.</em></li>
<li><em>Each of the next three monthly inflation rates is depressed by the new basket weights with only three releases currently rounding to an impact less than 0.1pp in 2021. Shocks will inevitably shift the magnitudes and the consensus is set to suffer regular surprises.</em></li>
</ul>


Jan-21 inflation was confirmed at 0.9% y-o-y in the euro area, with the ex-tobacco index at 0.8%, as expected. Weighting changes caused 44bps of the 118bp EA rise, but the shock washes out in our forecast for the annual rate in Dec-21.
Each of the next three monthly inflation rates is depressed by the new basket weights with only three releases currently rounding to an impact less than 0.1pp in 2021. Shocks will inevitably shift the magnitudes and the consensus is set to suffer regular surprises.


EA: Echoes from Inflation’s Remix