Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Flash EA inflation plummeted by 74bp in Jan-23 to 8.46% y-o-y. That was 20bps below our forecast, which was already about 0.4pp under the consensus.</li>
<li>Germany’s postponed release left Eurostat to estimate an even lower outcome than we assumed. An update 0.6pp less weak next week would prompt an 18bp EA revision.</li>
<li>The headline’s roll into a downward trend has also shifted surprises. Still, it has not dented the hawkish underlying pressures pushing further ECB rate hikes.</li>
</ul>


Flash EA inflation plummeted by 74bp in Jan-23 to 8.46% y-o-y. That was 20bps below our forecast, which was already about 0.4pp under the consensus.
Germany’s postponed release left Eurostat to estimate an even lower outcome than we assumed. An update 0.6pp less weak next week would prompt an 18bp EA revision.
The headline’s roll into a downward trend has also shifted surprises. Still, it has not dented the hawkish underlying pressures pushing further ECB rate hikes.


EA: HICP Limbos Under Jan-23 Forecasts