Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

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<li><em>EA HICP inflation for Sep-21 was confirmed at a low 3.4% y-o-y, while the ex-tobacco index printed precisely in line with our forecast at 108.06. Divisional details contained little news, but ongoing energy price rises mean our Oct-21 forecast rises to 3.7%.</em></li>
<li><em>Nov-21 remains the peak in our forecast but is now at 4.1%. That is a similar headline to the UK CPI, reinforcing the potential suitability of HICP as a cheaper RPI hedge. The EA consensus is chasing our higher forecast. We remain above it but are no more hawkish.</em></li>
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EA HICP inflation for Sep-21 was confirmed at a low 3.4% y-o-y, while the ex-tobacco index printed precisely in line with our forecast at 108.06. Divisional details contained little news, but ongoing energy price rises mean our Oct-21 forecast rises to 3.7%.
Nov-21 remains the peak in our forecast but is now at 4.1%. That is a similar headline to the UK CPI, reinforcing the potential suitability of HICP as a cheaper RPI hedge. The EA consensus is chasing our higher forecast. We remain above it but are no more hawkish.


EA: HICP Peak Keeps Stretching Higher