Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

EA: Inflation Less Weak than Nov-22 Flash

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The final print of EA HICP inflation trimmed the flash again in Oct-22 to 10.6%. Italy drove this revision, as we previewed last week, but it remains far too high.</li>
<li>Underlying inflationary impulses have increased in some countries and are generally stuck near their highs. This resilience in the euro area remains a significant concern.</li>
<li>We fear a repeat of the forecast drift pushing peak inflation higher, which would encourage the ECB to hike by 75bps again. So there are upside risks to our views.</li>
</ul>


The final print of EA HICP inflation trimmed the flash again in Oct-22 to 10.6%. Italy drove this revision, as we previewed last week, but it remains far too high.
Underlying inflationary impulses have increased in some countries and are generally stuck near their highs. This resilience in the euro area remains a significant concern.
We fear a repeat of the forecast drift pushing peak inflation higher, which would encourage the ECB to hike by 75bps again. So there are upside risks to our views.


EA: Huge Final HICP Print Trimmed Again