Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

EA: Underlying Inflation Falling Past Peak

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>EA HICP inflation was unrevised from 8.05% in the final print for May-22, and the HICPxT rose to 8.2% y-o-y, in line with our forecast.</li>
<li>Unlike the current consensus, we still expect the headline rate to rise again in June. However, the upside in our forecast is relatively small, with the peak still looking flat.</li>
<li>The underlying inflation impulse may have softened in May. Nonetheless, it remains too high and is raising the annual rates of most statistical measures we track.</li>
</ul>


EA HICP inflation was unrevised from 8.05% in the final print for May-22, and the HICPxT rose to 8.2% y-o-y, in line with our forecast.
Unlike the current consensus, we still expect the headline rate to rise again in June. However, the upside in our forecast is relatively small, with the peak still looking flat.
The underlying inflation impulse may have softened in May. Nonetheless, it remains too high and is raising the annual rates of most statistical measures we track.


EA: Inflation Trend’s Momentum Dips