Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Negative payback in services inflation dragged the headline EA rate down to 1.92% in the May flash. Although only 7bps low on the day, releases last week had cut 0.1pp. </li><li>Inflation now looks set to spend a few months below the target rather than at or even above it, as had seemed likely until recently. This is not because of re-rooted imports.</li><li>Euro appreciation and low energy prices have expanded the ECB’s room to cut rates, but we still see June as the final one amid tight labour markets and peers backing away.</li></ul><p></p>

Negative payback in services inflation dragged the headline EA rate down to 1.92% in the May flash. Although only 7bps low on the day, releases last week had cut 0.1pp. Inflation now looks set to spend a few months below the target rather than at or even above it, as had seemed likely until recently. This is not because of re-rooted imports.Euro appreciation and low energy prices have expanded the ECB’s room to cut rates, but we still see June as the final one amid tight labour markets and peers backing away.

EA: May Be Disinflation’s Return