New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

Forsyth Barr

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We expect EBOS Group (EBO) to report a soft (as well signalled) 1H26 result on Wednesday 25 February, reflecting: (1) the annualisation of elevated healthcare opex in 2H25; and (2) meaningfully higher ‘below-the-line’ items, which surprised negatively in 2H25.</li><li>We forecast EBITDA of ~A$302m (+4% vs 1H25) and NPAT of ~A$124m (-5% vs 1H25), and are below consensus for both, albeit we question whether consensus is completely accurate.</li><li>In light of the turbulent past six months, there will be many discussion points, but with EBO having de-rated to ~15x 12-month forward PE (10-year average of ~21x), investor expectations are very low—we see the risk–reward as favourable heading into the result.</li></ul>

We expect EBOS Group (EBO) to report a soft (as well signalled) 1H26 result on Wednesday 25 February, reflecting: (1) the annualisation of elevated healthcare opex in 2H25; and (2) meaningfully higher ‘below-the-line’ items, which surprised negatively in 2H25.We forecast EBITDA of ~A$302m (+4% vs 1H25) and NPAT of ~A$124m (-5% vs 1H25), and are below consensus for both, albeit we question whether consensus is completely accurate.In light of the turbulent past six months, there will be many discussion points, but with EBO having de-rated to ~15x 12-month forward PE (10-year average of ~21x), investor expectations are very low—we see the risk–reward as favourable heading into the result.

EBOS Group 1H26 Preview—Low Expectations