Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Capital markets veteran with 25 years across sell-side and buy-side research, investor relations, and fund management. Currently publish independent equity research (Mofferies Investment Research, via Smartkarma) spanning semiconductor memory (DRAM/NAND/HBM), foundry, semiconductor equipment and advanced packaging, gold and cross-asset strategy, financials forensics, and APAC IPOs — with a standing watchlist of 190+ companies across 41 countries. Background includes deep aviation-sector expertise (airlines, airports, OEMs, lessors, air cargo, travel/OTAs). Approach centers on identifying cyclical inflection points and mispriced risk across sectors, translated into explicit, actionable calls.

Primer: EcoCeres (ECOCERES HK) - May 2026

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A rare pure-play listing. EcoCeres, a Bain-backed Hong Kong producer of sustainable aviation fuel, targets a ~US$1bn IPO by end-2026, in a market created by law.</li>
<li>It lists near a margin peak. The 2026 oil shock inflated SAF profits; in 2024, oversupply more than halved Neste's margins. Value it on mid-cycle earnings, not the windfall.</li>
<li>Price discipline matters. Law-mandated green sectors (solar, wind, renewable fuels) trade at 6–12x EV/EBITDA. The reported US$5bn valuation implies ~14x. Engage below US$3.5bn; pass above US$5bn.</li>
</ul>


A rare pure-play listing. EcoCeres, a Bain-backed Hong Kong producer of sustainable aviation fuel, targets a ~US$1bn IPO by end-2026, in a market created by law.
It lists near a margin peak. The 2026 oil shock inflated SAF profits; in 2024, oversupply more than halved Neste's margins. Value it on mid-cycle earnings, not the windfall.
Price discipline matters. Law-mandated green sectors (solar, wind, renewable fuels) trade at 6–12x EV/EBITDA. The reported US$5bn valuation implies ~14x. Engage below US$3.5bn; pass above US$5bn.


EcoCeres Pre-IPO Note: The Price of Decarbonising Aviation