Egypt's Economic Progress in 2018: Challenges and Opportunities to Examine Moving Forward

The Global Significance of Egypt’s Improving Macro Picture and Sovereign Discount

Egypt Travel Report: Stock Market Discount Widens Despite Numerous Recovery Signals

Frontier and emerging markets (Vietnam)

Dylan Waller

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Egypt’s economy is positioned to enter a new high growth phase, and the economy has also seen substantial improvements in recent months, most notably including inflation dropping the single digit levels during July and August this year.  Egypt's economy grew by 5.3% during the 2nd quarter of this year, and 5.3% during FY18, which is well above its historical average.  Egypt has made massive strides to improve its economy under the three year IMF program, and most of the shocks from these measures ( including cutting fuel subsidies) have begun to wear off. Notable improvements include the improvement of the country's twin deficits, reduction in inflation, lower public debt, surging foreign exchange reserves, improved business environment, and favorable performance of the country's currency.FDI in FY19 was equivalent to 3.2% of GDP compared to 3.4% in the previous year.  However, this still represents a substantial improvement from the levels seen in 2016, when FDI was only 2.1% of GDP.   The main issue is that the majority of the FDI is targeting the oil sector ( roughly 2/3 of the total amount), while the manufacturing sector only receives around 10% of the total FDI.Key issues now include the high levels of unemployment, the high level of public debt, and recent security risks, which have threatened the tourism industry.

Egypt’s economy is positioned to enter a new high growth phase, and the economy has also seen substantial improvements in recent months, most notably including inflation dropping the single digit levels during July and August this year.  Egypt's economy grew by 5.3% during the 2nd quarter of this year, and 5.3% during FY18, which is well above its historical average.  Egypt has made massive strides to improve its economy under the three year IMF program, and most of the shocks from these measures ( including cutting fuel subsidies) have begun to wear off. Notable improvements include the improvement of the country's twin deficits, reduction in inflation, lower public debt, surging foreign exchange reserves, improved business environment, and favorable performance of the country's currency.FDI in FY19 was equivalent to 3.2% of GDP compared to 3.4% in the previous year.  However, this still represents a substantial improvement from the levels seen in 2016, when FDI was only 2.1% of GDP.   The main issue is that the majority of the FDI is targeting the oil sector ( roughly 2/3 of the total amount), while the manufacturing sector only receives around 10% of the total FDI.Key issues now include the high levels of unemployment, the high level of public debt, and recent security risks, which have threatened the tourism industry.

Egypt Concludes Its Turnaround Narrative