Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

Equity and credit research focused on value chains and capital structure. Experience across traditional metals, materials, advanced materials and industrial cyclicals. Built to Endure.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Brunei Chemicals / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>ENSO remained broadly neutral during early 2026, although probabilities of El Niño later increased, suggesting weather risk remains more forward-looking than physically visible.</li>
<li>Palm oil appears most exposed, with Malaysia and Indonesia dominating global supply and 2015–2016 El Niño contributing to 13–17% production declines and 20–30% CPO gains.</li>
<li>Natural rubber follows because Thailand accounts for roughly one-third of global production, while late-2025 flooding affected 656,000 hectares and reduced supply flexibility.</li>
</ul>


ENSO remained broadly neutral during early 2026, although probabilities of El Niño later increased, suggesting weather risk remains more forward-looking than physically visible.
Palm oil appears most exposed, with Malaysia and Indonesia dominating global supply and 2015–2016 El Niño contributing to 13–17% production declines and 20–30% CPO gains.
Natural rubber follows because Thailand accounts for roughly one-third of global production, while late-2025 flooding affected 656,000 hectares and reduced supply flexibility.


El Niño / La Niña: Which ASEAN Commodities Have The Smallest Buffers?