New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

Forsyth Barr

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>There is a ~65% probability of an El Niño event developing by the end of July 2026 with a strong likelihood that it develops into a ‘strong’ event by spring, peaking by the end of this year.</li><li>We see the potential earnings impact on NZX listed companies as minor, though think the risk premium for exposed names is likely to increase.</li><li>If a strong El Niño event leads to a meaningful deterioration in agricultural production, this could weigh on the domestic growth outlook and add to the risk of a more stagflationary economic environment.</li></ul>

There is a ~65% probability of an El Niño event developing by the end of July 2026 with a strong likelihood that it develops into a ‘strong’ event by spring, peaking by the end of this year.We see the potential earnings impact on NZX listed companies as minor, though think the risk premium for exposed names is likely to increase.If a strong El Niño event leads to a meaningful deterioration in agricultural production, this could weigh on the domestic growth outlook and add to the risk of a more stagflationary economic environment.

Equity Strategy El Nino—More Than Just Hot Air