European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Estée Lauder / Puig: Talks Collapse as Execution Risk Prevails

Estée Lauder / Puig: Smelling Consolidation in Premium Beauty

Estée Lauder / Puig: Regulatory Changes Ease Path to Transaction

Estée Lauder / Puig: Financing Progress Raises Deal Probability

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Price indications of €18–19 per share emerge for Puig, below prior ~€20 expectations, reducing upside to ~4–7% and shifting the trade from upside-driven optionality toward execution and timing.</li>
<li>Structure now clearer: mixed cash and shares, €3–3.5bn cash requirement, and super-voting share exchange between families; potential ~20% dilution keeps focus on equity issuance and financing constraints.</li>
<li>At ~€17.8, Puig implies ~75-80% deal probability (vs ~50–60% previously), with risk/reward now driven by completion, shareholder mix and timing rather than further re-rating.</li>
</ul>


Price indications of €18–19 per share emerge for Puig, below prior ~€20 expectations, reducing upside to ~4–7% and shifting the trade from upside-driven optionality toward execution and timing.
Structure now clearer: mixed cash and shares, €3–3.5bn cash requirement, and super-voting share exchange between families; potential ~20% dilution keeps focus on equity issuance and financing constraints.
At ~€17.8, Puig implies ~75-80% deal probability (vs ~50–60% previously), with risk/reward now driven by completion, shareholder mix and timing rather than further re-rating.


Estée Lauder / Puig: Price Discovery Emerges, Upside Compresses

Puig Brands

Estée Lauder / Puig: Price Discovery Emerges, Upside Compresses