Lufthansa Group – Revisiting Margin and Portfolio Management Challenges

Ryanair - Pricing Appears to Be Softening; Re-Setting Profitability Expectations

Ryanair – FY25 Weakness Suggests a “normalization” and Prompts Structural Industry Questions

European Airlines – The Ravages of Increased Earnings Seasonality

Lufthansa - ITA Airways Financial Sustainability Questions Without Lufthansa Partnership/Steering

European Airlines - Difficult to Avoid Long Haul Earnings Declines in 2024

European Airlines - Assessing Fuel Price Risk to Earnings

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Forward looking fare data suggests pricing further weakening for the European flag carriers on long haul in particular.</li>
<li>We expect Lufthansa to miss EBIT guidance by 30% in 2024 while we also cut Air France-KLM 2024 EBIT by 15%.</li>
<li>IAG stands out as most resilient, with BA seemingly outperforming peer pricing on the Transatlantic.</li>
</ul>


Forward looking fare data suggests pricing further weakening for the European flag carriers on long haul in particular.
We expect Lufthansa to miss EBIT guidance by 30% in 2024 while we also cut Air France-KLM 2024 EBIT by 15%.
IAG stands out as most resilient, with BA seemingly outperforming peer pricing on the Transatlantic.


International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG LN)

International Consolidated Airlines Group

European Airlines - Fare Softening Suggests Elevated Earnings Risk with Self-Help Stories Crucial

Deutsche Lufthansa

European Airlines - Fare Softening Suggests Elevated Earnings Risk with Self-Help Stories Crucial