Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Inflationary Expectations and Service Sector Inflation: Crucial to Fed Interest Rate Reductions

Fed Still Intent on Lowering Policy Rate Despite Inflation Uncertainties

Have Post-2009 Credit Upheavals Imparted Greater US Economic Resilience to Tighter Fed Policy?

US Banking System: Repeat of 2008 Unlikely as Fed Separates Balance Sheet from Interest Rate Policy

Fed Holds Its Nerve, but Banking System Liquidity Issues Persist

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The US Treasury's reliance on T-bill issuance has been embraced positively by risky assets, but any sustained rally will require the return of disinflation supported by economic fundamentals.</li>
<li>The arrival of positive real interest rates enhances the chances of disinflation returning, but Fed policy is on an extended holding period into 2024, notwithstanding the political calendar</li>
<li>Private sector imbalances in the US economy are not particularly large by historic standards. Financial asset valuation imbalances remain intact, notably a low equity risk premium versus Treasury bonds.</li>
</ul>


The US Treasury's reliance on T-bill issuance has been embraced positively by risky assets, but any sustained rally will require the return of disinflation supported by economic fundamentals.
The arrival of positive real interest rates enhances the chances of disinflation returning, but Fed policy is on an extended holding period into 2024, notwithstanding the political calendar
Private sector imbalances in the US economy are not particularly large by historic standards. Financial asset valuation imbalances remain intact, notably a low equity risk premium versus Treasury bonds.


Extended Fed Policy Pause Puts Focus on US Equity-Bond Valuation Imbalance