Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Repeat of 2024: Fed Policy Conduct Becomes Forecast Based in Q4

Fed Policy Conduct: Limitations of Data-Dependent Approach Being Exposed

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Newly-Appointed Fed Governor Miran has shifted his attention of monetary policy conduct away from data dependency towards r*, the neutral real policy rate. Data-dependent policy has been detrimental to credibility. </li>
<li>Governor Miran believes r* will fall due to the impact of President Trump’s policies on inflation, including lower immigration and lighter business regulation, as well as lower structural budget deficits.</li>
<li>Stronger-Than-Expected economic data has resulted in some Federal Reserve Bank Presidents cautioning against continued near-term policy easing, citing lingering inflation concerns. Chairman Powell wants policy easing twice more in 2025.</li>
</ul>


Newly-Appointed Fed Governor Miran has shifted his attention of monetary policy conduct away from data dependency towards r*, the neutral real policy rate. Data-dependent policy has been detrimental to credibility. 
Governor Miran believes r* will fall due to the impact of President Trump’s policies on inflation, including lower immigration and lighter business regulation, as well as lower structural budget deficits.
Stronger-Than-Expected economic data has resulted in some Federal Reserve Bank Presidents cautioning against continued near-term policy easing, citing lingering inflation concerns. Chairman Powell wants policy easing twice more in 2025.


Fed Policy Conduct: Diminished Role of Data-Dependent Framework as R* Gains Some Traction