Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Fed Policy Conduct: Diminished Role of Data-Dependent Framework as R* Gains Some Traction

Fed Policy Conduct: Limitations of Data-Dependent Approach Being Exposed

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Chairman Powell has effectively locked the Fed into lowering its policy rate this month with another pivot towards forecast-dependent policy conduct, analogous to the events during 2024 Q4.</li>
<li>The credibility of Chairman Powell's view of labour market conditions has been significantly undermined by  recent weaker gains in non-farm payrolls, as well as due to the annual benchmark revision.</li>
<li>Policy uncertainty remains elevated, particularly with respect to final tariff outcomes due to legal issues. Financial markets need to focus on evolving longer-term inflation trends under new Fed leadership. </li>
</ul>


Chairman Powell has effectively locked the Fed into lowering its policy rate this month with another pivot towards forecast-dependent policy conduct, analogous to the events during 2024 Q4.
The credibility of Chairman Powell's view of labour market conditions has been significantly undermined by  recent weaker gains in non-farm payrolls, as well as due to the annual benchmark revision.
Policy uncertainty remains elevated, particularly with respect to final tariff outcomes due to legal issues. Financial markets need to focus on evolving longer-term inflation trends under new Fed leadership. 


Repeat of 2024: Fed Policy Conduct Becomes Forecast Based in Q4