Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Fed Policy Conduct: Diminished Role of Data-Dependent Framework as R* Gains Some Traction

Repeat of 2024: Fed Policy Conduct Becomes Forecast Based in Q4

Fed Policy Conduct: Limitations of Data-Dependent Approach Being Exposed

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The idea that artificial intelligence (AI) adoption will raise the neutral policy rate (r*) due to higher productivity growth has gained acceptance amongst most central bankers.</li>
<li>Rising uncertainty about labour displacement could increase precautionary savings that puts downward pressure on the neutral policy rate. Higher productivity will increase the US tax base and enhance fiscal sustainability.</li>
<li>AI has produced inflationary pressures in technology segments. Under less guidance, perceived changes in the Fed's policy reaction function could become more important than any single policy rate decision.  </li>
</ul>


The idea that artificial intelligence (AI) adoption will raise the neutral policy rate (r*) due to higher productivity growth has gained acceptance amongst most central bankers.
Rising uncertainty about labour displacement could increase precautionary savings that puts downward pressure on the neutral policy rate. Higher productivity will increase the US tax base and enhance fiscal sustainability.
AI has produced inflationary pressures in technology segments. Under less guidance, perceived changes in the Fed's policy reaction function could become more important than any single policy rate decision.  


Artificial Intelligence Adoption and Fed Policy Conduct: Multiple Forces in Play