An anticipated slowdown in China's growth in 2025 would likely impact Taiwan, Singapore, and Vietnam the most, while Japan, Indonesia, and India are least exposed.
What is covered in the Full Insight:
Introduction to China's slowdown in 2025
Implications of US tariffs on China
Impact of China's economic trends on Asia
Potential positive spillovers to ASEAN economies
Conclusion on region's exposure to China's slowdown
Boomeranged on Thu, 6 Feb 2025 18:30
The US has imposed 10% tariff on China effective from 4 Feb. Beijing has retaliated mildly. This suggests some upside to our view of China's growth slowing to 4% in 2025, which assumes a 20-30ppt increase in effective US tariff rate on China.
But we maintain our forecast as tariffs on China are likely to rise.
What to watch : China's domestic policy, whether CNY will be a negotiating tool