Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Gautam Jain has over 25 years of experience covering global emerging fixed income and currency markets, both as a strategist and a portfolio manager. He has worked in buy-side and sell-side firms, including The Rohatyn Group (TRG Management), Barclays Capital, and Millennium Partners. He has helped manage emerging markets local-currency and hard-currency debt funds. The assets that he covers include currencies, interest rates, sovereign credits, and related derivatives. He specializes in portfolio construction, smart-beta index creation, and asset allocation. Mr. Jain holds a Ph.D. in Operations Research from Columbia University and is a CFA charter holder.

Outliers Within EM Rates Amid Rising Volatility of US Rates

Alpha Bites: Performance Summary of Trade Recommendations – November 2021

Alpha Bites: Take Profits on Flattener Recommendations in Thailand and India

Hawkish Rates Markets Ahead of Themselves

Rates 10y Dashboard: Correlation of EM Rates with the US Rises Sharply

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

FX & Rates

<p>The rate curve in the US has been flattening lately as the short-end moved higher with rate hikes getting priced and the long end coming off the peak. Other countries have followed the flattening trend, including in emerging markets (EM). In contrast with the US though, EM rate curves have flattened more dramatically and have experienced bear-flattening. The recent trend allowed me to suggest taking profits on some of my flattening recommendations, but has worked against my steepening recommendations. Given the extreme levels, however, I recommend continuing to hold on to the steepeners for now.</p><p>Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which I seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.</p>

The rate curve in the US has been flattening lately as the short-end moved higher with rate hikes getting priced and the long end coming off the peak. Other countries have followed the flattening trend, including in emerging markets (EM). In contrast with the US though, EM rate curves have flattened more dramatically and have experienced bear-flattening. The recent trend allowed me to suggest taking profits on some of my flattening recommendations, but has worked against my steepening recommendations. Given the extreme levels, however, I recommend continuing to hold on to the steepeners for now.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which I seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Flattening of Rate Curves in EM Far Exceeds the US

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic)

Flattening of Rate Curves in EM Far Exceeds the US