Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Capital markets veteran with 25 years across sell-side and buy-side research, investor relations, and fund management. Currently publish independent equity research (Mofferies Investment Research, via Smartkarma) spanning semiconductor memory (DRAM/NAND/HBM), foundry, semiconductor equipment and advanced packaging, gold and cross-asset strategy, financials forensics, and APAC IPOs — with a standing watchlist of 190+ companies across 41 countries. Background includes deep aviation-sector expertise (airlines, airports, OEMs, lessors, air cargo, travel/OTAs). Approach centers on identifying cyclical inflection points and mispriced risk across sectors, translated into explicit, actionable calls.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
 Grasberg monetization is deferred. The wet-ore fix cuts 2026–27 copper by ~9%; the resource is intact and the MoU extends PTFI's operating rights beyond 2041 for the life of resource.</li>
<li>
 Earnings to double in FY27. We forecast EPS of US$2.45/3.30/3.90 for FY26/27/28E as volumes recover from 3.1bn to ~4.3bn lbs and unit costs fall from US$1.75 to ~US$1.30/lb.</li>
<li>
We derive a fair value of US$74 - 23x FY27 P/E, peak of cycle multiple. We think market is pricing worse-case-scenario (Grasberg impairment), but the asset is churning revenue.  </li>
</ul>



 Grasberg monetization is deferred. The wet-ore fix cuts 2026–27 copper by ~9%; the resource is intact and the MoU extends PTFI's operating rights beyond 2041 for the life of resource.

 Earnings to double in FY27. We forecast EPS of US$2.45/3.30/3.90 for FY26/27/28E as volumes recover from 3.1bn to ~4.3bn lbs and unit costs fall from US$1.75 to ~US$1.30/lb.

We derive a fair value of US$74 - 23x FY27 P/E, peak of cycle multiple. We think market is pricing worse-case-scenario (Grasberg impairment), but the asset is churning revenue.  


Freeport-McMoRan (FCX US): Buying the World's Greatest Copper Mine at a Discount

Freeport Mcmoran

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX US): Buying the World's Greatest Copper Mine at a Discount