Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Capital markets veteran with 25 years across sell-side and buy-side research, investor relations, and fund management. Currently publish independent equity research (Mofferies Investment Research, via Smartkarma) spanning semiconductor memory (DRAM/NAND/HBM), foundry, semiconductor equipment and advanced packaging, gold and cross-asset strategy, financials forensics, and APAC IPOs — with a standing watchlist of 190+ companies across 41 countries. Background includes deep aviation-sector expertise (airlines, airports, OEMs, lessors, air cargo, travel/OTAs). Approach centers on identifying cyclical inflection points and mispriced risk across sectors, translated into explicit, actionable calls.

Our High Conviction Asia Based Gaming Stocks Signal Buy on the Dip Entry Points

Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK): The Balance Sheet the Market Forgot to Price

Equity Bottom-Up

Galaxy Entertainment Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>1H26 adjusted EBITDA +1%, Q2 -5%; every gaming volume line fell and hold carried the quarter. We cut FY26E EBITDA 9% to HK$14.3bn, our initiation bear case.</li>
<li>Filings show 1H26 capex of HK$1.25bn against a HK$10–11bn guide since halved; Phase 4 slips to FY28E. Net cash HK$35.9bn and payout at 75% got stronger.</li>
<li>BULLISH, fair value HK$37.00 maintained on 8.3x FY27E EV/EBITDA plus net cash; +13% upside, ~19% TSR. Buy the September shoulder ahead of typhoon-hit comps and Golden Week.</li>
</ul>


1H26 adjusted EBITDA +1%, Q2 -5%; every gaming volume line fell and hold carried the quarter. We cut FY26E EBITDA 9% to HK$14.3bn, our initiation bear case.
Filings show 1H26 capex of HK$1.25bn against a HK$10–11bn guide since halved; Phase 4 slips to FY28E. Net cash HK$35.9bn and payout at 75% got stronger.
BULLISH, fair value HK$37.00 maintained on 8.3x FY27E EV/EBITDA plus net cash; +13% upside, ~19% TSR. Buy the September shoulder ahead of typhoon-hit comps and Golden Week.


Galaxy Entertainment (27 HK): 75% Payout, Halved Capex, Flat Share — The Trade Into Easy Sep Comps