European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Gamma Communications: Waterland Without Giacom

Epiris / Gamma Communications: Waterland Drops the Call

Gamma Communications: Providence Puts 1000p+ Into Play

Gamma Communications: 1,156p Vs 1,120p — How Much Is a Counterbid Worth?

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Waterland reportedly plans to bid above Epiris’s 1,120p offer, but Gamma already trades at 1,181p. A firm counterbid could therefore still come below the current share price.</li>
<li>We estimate the Giacom carve-out at £46.6m EBITDA and £419m at 9x. On our LBO assumptions, an 18% sponsor return supports only approximately 1,131p.</li>
<li>Our probability-weighted value is 1,195p, just 1.19% above spot. Outcomes at 1,225p+ require better carve-out economics than our base case or an Epiris response.</li>
</ul>


Waterland reportedly plans to bid above Epiris’s 1,120p offer, but Gamma already trades at 1,181p. A firm counterbid could therefore still come below the current share price.
We estimate the Giacom carve-out at £46.6m EBITDA and £419m at 9x. On our LBO assumptions, an 18% sponsor return supports only approximately 1,131p.
Our probability-weighted value is 1,195p, just 1.19% above spot. Outcomes at 1,225p+ require better carve-out economics than our base case or an Epiris response.


Gamma Communications: What Does Waterland’s LBO Support?