Economist

Richard Iley

Macroeconomics

<div class="content-highlight"><p>2018 promises to be another fascinating, but almost certainly more challenging year for global investors. We have identified a number of non-consensus calls - 18 of them for '18 - to help navigate the minefield.</p><p>Our first five are: </p><ul><li>global growth momentum has already peaked and will slow through the year;</li><li>the US's growth-inflation mix will deteriorate and the Philipps curve should flicker back to life;</li><li>The Federal Reserve will hike more than expected, lifting the Fed Funds rate at least three times;</li><li>the UST curve will keep flattening but 'bond market conundrum 2.0' will continue to cap longer yields;</li><li> risks to oil are heavily to the downside. A slump back below $50 per barrel could be THE story of 2018.</li></ul><p>Another 5 to follow soon. </p></div>

2018 promises to be another fascinating, but almost certainly more challenging year for global investors. We have identified a number of non-consensus calls - 18 of them for '18 - to help navigate the minefield.Our first five are: global growth momentum has already peaked and will slow through the year;the US's growth-inflation mix will deteriorate and the Philipps curve should flicker back to life;The Federal Reserve will hike more than expected, lifting the Fed Funds rate at least three times;the UST curve will keep flattening but 'bond market conundrum 2.0' will continue to cap longer yields; risks to oil are heavily to the downside. A slump back below $50 per barrel could be THE story of 2018.Another 5 to follow soon. 

Multiple Countries

Global: 18 For '18 - Part 1