Global Commodities: 2026 Outlook – Supply-driven crocodile cycle

• Precious metals sub index has surged by 62% year to date, base metals are up 11%, oil has declined by 16%, and agricultural livestock index has been flat
• Forecasting broadly flat returns for 2026, with declines in energy offset by price increases in metals and agriculture
• Gold price expected to rise to $5,000 per ounce by end of 2026, driven by supply inelasticity, central bank demand, and investor inflows

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