Global Commodities: The unintended consequences of destabilizing Iran

• Despite the pressure on the regime and escalating hostilities between Israel and Iran, oil prices have remained relatively contained, up only $10 since last Tuesday
• The risks of the Strait of Hormuz being closed are considered low due to US presence in the region and historical trends of short-lived oil shocks from conflicts
• Regime changes in oil-producing countries have historically led to significant spikes in oil prices, with supply disruptions lasting up to six months and causing prices to stabilize at levels 30% or higher than pre-conflict levels

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