Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

CrossBorder Capital an investment advisory firm specialising in macro-investing. Founded in 1996 with an international client base, CrossBorder focuses on monitoring and understanding global liquidity and capital flows. Our proprietary databases (available to clients) cover 80 countries in depth from 1980 onwards. We take a systematic quantitative methodology that uses this data with AI models to predict financial market movements. The efficacy of our data has been independently verified, and we have an associated but separate asset management division.

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

WFC - Net Interest Income +8% YoY Vs +29% | CRE Non-Accruals +54% QoQ, +4.5x YoY | NIM -17bps in 6M

US Large Banks - Weekly Balance Sheets: Decelerating Loans, Rising Cash, Big Time Deposits +109% YoY

US Banks - Mtg Loan Applications Index -15% from July | Mtg Loans 23% of Total | Growth Can Turn -Ve

Global Liquidity: Where Are We In The Cycle?

10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Breaking Out; Growing Number of Index/Sector Breakdowns

Downgrading Industrials to Market Weight; Major Supports Holding; Buys in Uranium and Refiners

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

Multiple Countries / Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
Global Liquidity Cycle hit a low in September 2022. It has been rising slowly since and looks set to hit a peak around 2026. Risk assets should get greater support</li>
<li>Yet the large 'carry' on government bonds and the recent sell-off persuades us to allocate towards fixed income for the first time in two years</li>
<li>There are risks. With coupon issuance is set to soar, Central Banks will be increasingly asked to finance monetary inflation
</li>
</ul>



Global Liquidity Cycle hit a low in September 2022. It has been rising slowly since and looks set to hit a peak around 2026. Risk assets should get greater support
Yet the large 'carry' on government bonds and the recent sell-off persuades us to allocate towards fixed income for the first time in two years
There are risks. With coupon issuance is set to soar, Central Banks will be increasingly asked to finance monetary inflation



iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT US)

Global Liquidity: Looking Towards 2024