Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Capital markets veteran with 25 years across sell-side and buy-side research, investor relations, and fund management. Currently publish independent equity research (Mofferies Investment Research, via Smartkarma) spanning semiconductor memory (DRAM/NAND/HBM), foundry, semiconductor equipment and advanced packaging, gold and cross-asset strategy, financials forensics, and APAC IPOs — with a standing watchlist of 190+ companies across 41 countries. Background includes deep aviation-sector expertise (airlines, airports, OEMs, lessors, air cargo, travel/OTAs). Approach centers on identifying cyclical inflection points and mispriced risk across sectors, translated into explicit, actionable calls.

GOLD: The Range Broke, The Trigger Fired — Now Only the 200-Day Stands

GOLD: US Treasury Is Buying Its Own Bonds to Manage the Curve. Gold Is the Hedge Against the Dollar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Five consecutive weeks above US$4,000 despite higher rate expectations and three-year-high real yields suggest gold has established a credible floor at current levels.</li>
<li>The flush is complete: COMEX open interest at 2009 lows, ETF outflows down from US$8.9bn in June to US$100mn last week, money managers adding.</li>
<li>Maintain BULLISH, Fair Value US$4,780 on a 12-month view: WGC's fair-value band top of US$4,305 plus circa 11% for structural central-bank demand. Year-end waypoint US$4,400.</li>
</ul>


Five consecutive weeks above US$4,000 despite higher rate expectations and three-year-high real yields suggest gold has established a credible floor at current levels.
The flush is complete: COMEX open interest at 2009 lows, ETF outflows down from US$8.9bn in June to US$100mn last week, money managers adding.
Maintain BULLISH, Fair Value US$4,780 on a 12-month view: WGC's fair-value band top of US$4,305 plus circa 11% for structural central-bank demand. Year-end waypoint US$4,400.


GOLD: Five Weeks at US$4,000 Through a 38% Oil Shock. The Sellers Are Done.