Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Semiconductor sector and Global Technology. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the Global Tech supply chain. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

Hyperscalers: Is AI Capex Too High? What’s AI Return on Investment?

Hyperscalers: What Is Consensus Forecasting? Good or Bad? How Much Capex Can They Spend?

Hyperscalers’ Capex Update. Remember Jensen’s $500bn Yesterday ?

Alphabet. More Of The AI, Less Of The Drama

Google: Ad and Cloud Re-Accelerating. Large Impact of AI Tools. Stock Is Not Expensive.

Alphabet (GOOG US) - 3Q25 Results Beat; Upbeat on AI and Cloud Business Momentum

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>AI investments are bearing fruits. Revenue growth is accelerating, margins moving up.  </li>
<li>As usual, no guidance. Capex will double in 2026 to $180bn. That’s a record high ~37% of revenues, hence a very major bet on accelerating growth / margins.</li>
<li>Consensus is reasonable-to-low with 14% revenue growth and 21% Operating Profit growth in 2026, 13% and 16% in 2027. I expect upward revisions. Valuations are high but growth is accelerating.</li>
</ul>


AI investments are bearing fruits. Revenue growth is accelerating, margins moving up.  
As usual, no guidance. Capex will double in 2026 to $180bn. That’s a record high ~37% of revenues, hence a very major bet on accelerating growth / margins.
Consensus is reasonable-to-low with 14% revenue growth and 21% Operating Profit growth in 2026, 13% and 16% in 2027. I expect upward revisions. Valuations are high but growth is accelerating.


Google: Very Impressive. Higher Capex, Higher Growth & Margins