Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

A buy-side analyst with over 18 years of experience investing in Asian markets and specializing in the mid-small cap space, emphasizing value investing in companies with good free cash flows/dividends and long-term holding horizons. 
Exempt Financial Adviser (EFA) under CrossASEAN Research Pte Ltd. It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Copper To End The Year with Seasonal Strength: Onward To 12,000 USD/Ton

Copper Production Disappointments Mount With Antofagasta (ANTO LN) Guidedown, Bullish To 12k USD/Ton

Comex-LME Trade Back In The Spotlight, Spread To Widen Again

Rate Cut To Spur Copper Performance In The Short-Term to Over 10K USD/Ton

Copper All Set To Break 10k USD/Ton In The Short-Term

Copper Prices to Rally To 11k USD/Ton Due To Grasberg Force Majeure

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.mining.com/all-missing-workers-found-dead-at-freeports-grasberg-mine/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">suspension of the Grasberg mine</a> following the mudrush incident is likely to weigh on copper supply and impact prices positively for the next two years. </li>
<li>The mine is expected to come back on stream, "<a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/grasberg-disaster-highlights-fragility-copper-supply-chain-2025-09-29/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">tentatively" only in 2027</a>, with over 700,000 tons of supply out of the market (~3% of supply) until then.</li>
<li>Following the challenges of the<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sVtkOQyOiI" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> El Teniente mine of Codelco</a> and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ivanhoe-s-massive-guide-down-and-copper-supply-impacts" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ivanhoe mines</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ivanhoe-s-massive-guide-down-and-copper-supply-impacts" target="_blank" rel="noopener">,</a> we estimate that the copper deficit could widen beyond 400k tons in 2025. </li>
</ul>


The suspension of the Grasberg mine following the mudrush incident is likely to weigh on copper supply and impact prices positively for the next two years. 
The mine is expected to come back on stream, "tentatively" only in 2027, with over 700,000 tons of supply out of the market (~3% of supply) until then.
Following the challenges of the El Teniente mine of Codelco and the Ivanhoe mines, we estimate that the copper deficit could widen beyond 400k tons in 2025. 


Grasberg To Weigh On Copper Supply In The Medium-Term, March To 12k USD/Ton

Southern Copper

Grasberg To Weigh On Copper Supply In The Medium-Term, March To 12k USD/Ton