European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Index Rebalance

National Bank Of Greece Sa / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Greece’s EM→DM reclassification is structurally positive but mechanically negative, with our base case modelling ~$250–380m net passive outflows and ~$10–15bn gross turnover across MSCI and FTSE implementation windows.</li>
<li>Flow concentration favours the largest, most liquid financials as primary absorption vehicles, while utilities and telecom names face higher risk of one-sided EM deletion pressure (see names below).</li>
<li>Best opportunities likely post-implementation: monitor auction imbalances and fade flow-driven overshoots 1–3 weeks after rebalance, alongside selective volatility strategies during peak execution stress.</li>
</ul>


Greece’s EM→DM reclassification is structurally positive but mechanically negative, with our base case modelling ~$250–380m net passive outflows and ~$10–15bn gross turnover across MSCI and FTSE implementation windows.
Flow concentration favours the largest, most liquid financials as primary absorption vehicles, while utilities and telecom names face higher risk of one-sided EM deletion pressure (see names below).
Best opportunities likely post-implementation: monitor auction imbalances and fade flow-driven overshoots 1–3 weeks after rebalance, alongside selective volatility strategies during peak execution stress.


Greece EM→DM Reclassification: Trading the Passive Flow Dislocation