Greggs — Weak consumer outlook prompts more caution

Greggs’ Q425 trading update showed continuing weaker trading against easier comparatives from Q424 than it had faced through the first nine months of 2025. Management has given a very clear message of outperformance versus the market. Despite the weaker-than-expected revenue performance, FY25’s PBT is in line with management expectations, before some new exceptional costs of £4.5m. Management’s new guidance is for a similar underlying level of profit in FY26 as FY25, in the absence of any improvement in the consumer backdrop.