Guzzler Chronicles

Why "The Guzzler Chronicles"? This note sets out my current state of mind, and that view rests on several conditions: where yields sit, which way inflation is moving, how concentrated earnings growth is, and how stretched the charts are. Those conditions will change as the data and my analysis change, and my view will change with them. This is the first instalment of a series. Later notes will go deeper into individual topics raised here and will refer back to this one as the baseline.

APAC Capital Markets

APAC Capital Markets, Guzzler Chronicles

Anshul Trivedi

Cross Asset Strategy

Multiple Countries / Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Gold: GLD/SPY is +0.35 SD from its 5-year mean, about 31% below the February high and is almost back to mean. </li>
<li>Beta is "off the charts": SPHB/SPLV is +2.6 SD on the 5-year view, above the +2 SD band and about 3% below the 2 Oct high. </li>
<li>Central banks remain steady buyers: the World Gold Council expects about 850t in 2026, close to 2025's ~863t</li>
</ul>


Gold: GLD/SPY is +0.35 SD from its 5-year mean, about 31% below the February high and is almost back to mean. 
Beta is "off the charts": SPHB/SPLV is +2.6 SD on the 5-year view, above the +2 SD band and about 3% below the 2 Oct high. 
Central banks remain steady buyers: the World Gold Council expects about 850t in 2026, close to 2025's ~863t


Guzzler Chronicles: Go for Gold?