Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

End of An Era: Nabtesco and Harmonic Drive Dissolve Their Alliance - Event Lost, Pressure On

Harmonic Drive – Recovery Coming Through but Will This Be Another Daifuku?

Harmonic Drive – 11% Share Price Drop on 137% Order Jump

Harmonic Drive – Overvaluation and the ROBO ETF

Harmonic Drive – 1Q Guidance for a Small Profit Positive; Still Wildly Overvalued

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Harmonic Drive Systems / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Harmonic Drive (HDS) posted 2Q sales (¥8,384m) barely below consensus and OP of -¥295 vs. consensus forecasts of ¥593m in OP. Consensus margin estimates were unrealistic and fail to account for HDS’ significantly weaker margins due to its investment burden in the form of depreciation. Unfortunately for HDS orders fell 22.1% QoQ taking the shine off the 10.3% QoQ expansion in 1Q.</p>

Harmonic Drive (HDS) posted 2Q sales (¥8,384m) barely below consensus and OP of -¥295 vs. consensus forecasts of ¥593m in OP. Consensus margin estimates were unrealistic and fail to account for HDS’ significantly weaker margins due to its investment burden in the form of depreciation. Unfortunately for HDS orders fell 22.1% QoQ taking the shine off the 10.3% QoQ expansion in 1Q.

Harmonic Drive – One Step Forward One Step Back