Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

CrossBorder Capital an investment advisory firm specialising in macro-investing. Founded in 1996 with an international client base, CrossBorder focuses on monitoring and understanding global liquidity and capital flows. Our proprietary databases (available to clients) cover 80 countries in depth from 1980 onwards. We take a systematic quantitative methodology that uses this data with AI models to predict financial market movements. The efficacy of our data has been independently verified, and we have an associated but separate asset management division.

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Waiting For Clarity From the Nov. 30 Powell Speech

Fresh Assault on SPX 3,630 Bull/Bear Line

Hawkish Fed Faces New Challenge as US Treasury Examines Ways to Improve Market Liquidity

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

Multiple Countries / Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>US Fed has injected a positive US$167bn into markets so far in Q4, 2022. This partly reverses the US$1.1 trillion they withdrew in year up to September</li>
<li>Based on US Fed projections of a further US$1.5-2 trillion of QT liquidity withdrawals, the S&amp;P500 could skid lower to 3200 (i.e. minus 20% from here)</li>
<li>QT has stalled, showing the operational difficulty of withdrawing cash.  This may also reflect underlying concerns about US Treasury market liquidity. A pause/ pivot is coming, but its not now</li>
</ul>


US Fed has injected a positive US$167bn into markets so far in Q4, 2022. This partly reverses the US$1.1 trillion they withdrew in year up to September
Based on US Fed projections of a further US$1.5-2 trillion of QT liquidity withdrawals, the S&amp;P500 could skid lower to 3200 (i.e. minus 20% from here)
QT has stalled, showing the operational difficulty of withdrawing cash.  This may also reflect underlying concerns about US Treasury market liquidity. A pause/ pivot is coming, but its not now


Has The US Fed Already Paused Its QT and 'Pivoted'?