Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher, Algorithmic Trader and former Portfolio Manager at Capital Theory Investment Management, LLC, a CTA based in Austin, Texas (USA), where I developed and ran automated algorithmic trading strategies for the US Futures and Options markets. 

My work is focused on the statistical study of the "persistence of trends" and "mean reversion" effects in global Equities, Futures, Indexes, Bonds and FX Spot markets. I make extensive use of probabilistic Bayesian models to predict short-term (1 day to few weeks) trend reversals.

I do not use any AI/machine learning processes in my work: all models and algorithms are built by humans. This approach is very labour-intensive but produces forecasts that have a clearly understandable/explainable rationale (no black-boxes).

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>In our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hang-seng-index-faf-calculation-change-buy-the-dip" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous insight</a> we highlighted a buy-the-dip opportunity in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI INDEX</a> in the HSI Index during the late-March pullback. However, Trump’s tariff announcement dramatically shifted the outlook.</li>
<li>Following a sharp drop to 19260, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> staged a fierce rally to 21000—but momentum has since stalled.</li>
<li>The index has rallied for three straight weeks (including this one), but remains below key resistance levels. <strong>Our model signals weakness, and a likely pullback ahead.</strong>
</li>
</ul>


In our previous insight we highlighted a buy-the-dip opportunity in the HSI INDEX in the HSI Index during the late-March pullback. However, Trump’s tariff announcement dramatically shifted the outlook.
Following a sharp drop to 19260, the Hang Seng Index staged a fierce rally to 21000—but momentum has since stalled.
The index has rallied for three straight weeks (including this one), but remains below key resistance levels. Our model signals weakness, and a likely pullback ahead.



HSI Tactical Outlook: Fading Momentum Signals Pullback Risk