A 559-million-dollar equity claim on a 5.2-billion-dollar enterprise: the largest audio business in America, financed at nine per cent, racing its own broadcast decline against a genuinely good digital franchise.
The decisive point is arithmetic, not narrative: at $3.59 the equity is 11% of the enterprise, so a modest disagreement with the market about enterprise value produces a violent disagreement about the share price.
Our base case values the enterprise 3% above where it trades, which is worth $4.60 per share, and a probability-weighted view across the tree is $5.10 against $3.59 spot.
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