Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Mr. Bhaskaran is a leading Asian economist based in Singapore with more than 30 years of experience in studying economic, political and security issues that shape the business environment in Asia. He co-ordinates the Asian business of Washington DC-based strategic advisory firm, Centennial Group, directing its Asian economic research practice which provides in-depth analysis of macro trends in Asia. He works extensively with investment institutions, government agencies and corporations. Mr. Bhaskaran regularly presents his views on the economic, political and business environment in Asia at business conferences and in-house briefings. He has conducted studies on a wide range of subjects including: consumer finance in Asia; Asian integration; regional and country-specific political and economic outlooks; the Impact of China on Asia; portfolio capital flows in emerging markets, amongst many others. He is as a member of the Regional Advisory Group for Asia and the Pacific of the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Bhaskaran is a regular columnist for The Edge (Singapore) and holds positions in think tanks including being Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS); Vice President of the Economics Society of Singapore, and Council Member of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA). Mr. Bhaskaran serves on the boards of CIMB Investment Bank and Japfa Limited.

Asia Economist and CEO

India: Recovery Looks Increasingly Tenuous But Modi Will Survive

India State Elections: BJP’s Political Juggernaut Stopped In Its Tracks

India: Growth Narrative Risks Coming Undone

Indian Economy: Monsoon Normalcy Bodes Well for Farm Incomes

India: Prices Could Surprise on the Upside

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

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India’s economic recovery risks coming undone: as infections surge, new lockdowns are being imposed. While the central and state governments are avoiding drastic lockdowns similar to 2020, the hit to confidence is likely to seriously undermine the recovery as consumers hold back spending and firms defer capacity-building investments.</li>
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High-frequency indicators suggest the economic recovery could be sputtering, in part because of fresh mobility curbs. The Maharashtra state government has resorted to strict curfews over weekends to curb the spread of Covid-19. It was consumer spending that did most of the heavy lifting, as household savings have reverted back to pre-crisis levels by end-2020. What would have driven growth next, would be an upturn in investments. </li>
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Yet investment demand also appears to be weak, right when the stars are aligning for the revival of animal spirits in the Indian elephant. The ingredients for an investment upturn were all in place - record-corporate profits and savings in 4Q20, buoyant business confidence and an expected upturn in capex. Thus, the latest surge in infections could make businesses turn more cautious and hesitant to ramp up capacity-boosting investments.</li>
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India’s economic recovery risks coming undone: as infections surge, new lockdowns are being imposed. While the central and state governments are avoiding drastic lockdowns similar to 2020, the hit to confidence is likely to seriously undermine the recovery as consumers hold back spending and firms defer capacity-building investments.

High-frequency indicators suggest the economic recovery could be sputtering, in part because of fresh mobility curbs. The Maharashtra state government has resorted to strict curfews over weekends to curb the spread of Covid-19. It was consumer spending that did most of the heavy lifting, as household savings have reverted back to pre-crisis levels by end-2020. What would have driven growth next, would be an upturn in investments. 

Yet investment demand also appears to be weak, right when the stars are aligning for the revival of animal spirits in the Indian elephant. The ingredients for an investment upturn were all in place - record-corporate profits and savings in 4Q20, buoyant business confidence and an expected upturn in capex. Thus, the latest surge in infections could make businesses turn more cautious and hesitant to ramp up capacity-boosting investments.


India: Economic Recovery on Thin Ice