Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 34 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, Chief Economist at ICICI Securities, ASEAN economist and Asia sector strategist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

India: Inflation Likely Averaging 3.2%YoY in Apr-Dec'25 Will Allow 100bp of Rate Cuts

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India Twin Deficit Watch: CA Surplus, and a Lower-Than-Estimated Fiscal Deficit

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The RBI forecast 4.4%YoY inflation in Jan-Mar'25, but a 15.7%MoM decline in vegetable prices in Jan'25 enabled headline CPI inflation to ease to 4.3%YoY. </li>
<li>Our forecast of 4.1%YoY inflation for Jan-Mar'25 remains on track. With food inflation set to recede, we expect CPI inflation below 4%YoY in Apr-Sep'25, enabling 75bp of further rate cuts. </li>
<li>If the SW Monsoon in Jun-Sep'25 is normal or better, another 25bp rate cut is likely in Dec'25, taking the repo rate to 5.25% by the end of 2025. </li>
</ul>


The RBI forecast 4.4%YoY inflation in Jan-Mar'25, but a 15.7%MoM decline in vegetable prices in Jan'25 enabled headline CPI inflation to ease to 4.3%YoY. 
Our forecast of 4.1%YoY inflation for Jan-Mar'25 remains on track. With food inflation set to recede, we expect CPI inflation below 4%YoY in Apr-Sep'25, enabling 75bp of further rate cuts. 
If the SW Monsoon in Jun-Sep'25 is normal or better, another 25bp rate cut is likely in Dec'25, taking the repo rate to 5.25% by the end of 2025. 


S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)

India: Our View About Inflation Vindicated in Jan'25, Paving Path to Faster Rate Cuts