Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Semiconductor sector and Global Technology. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the Global Tech supply chain. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

Intel Q225. GM Obfuscation, Red Flags & 14A Now Officially A Risk Factor

Intel (INTC.US): 18A May Have Been Too Rushed; Now All Hopes Rest on 14A.

Intel. Was Tesla's Deal With Samsung The Death Knell For IFS?

Intel Layoffs Finally Kick Off With A Chaotic Start In Oregon

Intel Is Shrinking (Headcount), Declining (Market Share), but Weakness Can Be a Strength

Intel 18A Not Ready for Foundry (Preparing for Bad News?), TSMC Exit GaN (Doesn’t Matter), UMC 6nm

Intel (INTC.US): Abandon Promoting 18A to Fully Focus on 14A

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2Q25 huge miss, even excluding restructuring costs. 3Q guidance is “back to normal” but how to put any trust in guidance after the 2Q miss? Better wait for 3Q earnings. </li>
<li>Consensus will revised down sharply. 2025 definitely too high. 2027 expectations of a sharp margins improvement require a perfect alignment of the stars. </li>
<li>New CEO who is cleaning up the organization and refocusing Intel on what is required: fixing manufacturing, regaining x86 market share. It’s a good start, but can take 2-3 years.</li>
</ul>


2Q25 huge miss, even excluding restructuring costs. 3Q guidance is “back to normal” but how to put any trust in guidance after the 2Q miss? Better wait for 3Q earnings. 
Consensus will revised down sharply. 2025 definitely too high. 2027 expectations of a sharp margins improvement require a perfect alignment of the stars. 
New CEO who is cleaning up the organization and refocusing Intel on what is required: fixing manufacturing, regaining x86 market share. It’s a good start, but can take 2-3 years.


TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

Intel 2Q25: Getting Worse. Excluding Restructuring Charges, GM Miss by 700bps, Non-GAAP OP Negative.

Intel Corp

Intel 2Q25: Getting Worse. Excluding Restructuring Charges, GM Miss by 700bps, Non-GAAP OP Negative.