TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

I have over 20 years’ experience investing in the TMT and Consumer sectors, almost entirely on the buyside. Started at Bernstein covering software in 2001, moved to the buyside at Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) in 2003, covering hardware, software, and media. 

After getting an MBA at NYU in 2008 and a CFA, I spent 8 years at Coburn Ventures (a market neutral TMT/Consumer hedge fund). In 2015, I joined Deimos Asset Management, a low net multi-strat, where I managed a  TMT/Consumer portfolio.

I've spent the past few years at Obex Capital Management providing independent investment research to TMT and Consumer investors.

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

Intel Results PC Readthrough: Inventory Correction to Get Worse in 1Q23E

Intel’s Cut Its Dividend, But Should It Cut Its Foundry?

PC Industry Monitor: Signs of Inventory Improvement at PC Industry's Leading Edge; Shares Diverged

Intel: Are We Sure Gelsinger Is the Best Choice? Maybe Its Time for a Government Bailout.

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>How many kitchens does Intel have? Intel guided 1Q2023 revenues to $11B, down 40% YoY / 22% QoQ and 21% (!!) below consensus $14B. </li>
<li>1Q23 gross margins ex-accounting change guided to 36%, the lowest since 1986!</li>
<li>Intel's worsening FCF means dividend cuts are on the table.</li>
</ul>


How many kitchens does Intel have? Intel guided 1Q2023 revenues to $11B, down 40% YoY / 22% QoQ and 21% (!!) below consensus $14B. 
1Q23 gross margins ex-accounting change guided to 36%, the lowest since 1986!
Intel's worsening FCF means dividend cuts are on the table.


Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

Intel Corp

Intel 4Q22: How Many Kitchen Sinks?